Round 22 Results

Round 22 results:

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 110 out of 176

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Fremantle	W	$60
Geelong	W	$2
Hawthorn	W	$11
St.Kilda	L	-$30
Essendon	L	-$37
Sydney	W	$36
Port Adel.	W	$120
Melbourne	L	-$2
Total ($475 outlay)		$161 profit
Percentage Return		34% profit

A great finish to the season.

Overall for the 22 rounds of the 2010 home and away season, my result was a $45 loss. With bets totalling $9020, this calculates to a loss of less than 0.5%

Now, I actually consider this to be a successful trial for a number of reasons.
1) I implemented my method of predictions without any real analysis, so it is a great starting point for making refinements.
2) Further analysis, using the same methodology, can give improvements in returns by being more selective in betting. For example, the first few rounds a more random. Also, betting on teams with large odds (> 5.00) generally does not pay off overall.
3) The available odd from betting agencies has a built in profit margin of 8% or more. So I have already effectively beaten those odds.

I will perform some more analysis on the results for the season, and produce what I would consider a realistic return of the current version of my tipping system.

I also plan to undertake some development of the system, with automated testing to make improvements more rapidly. Hopefully version 2 will be ready for next season, and potentially be put into action.

Round 21 Results and Round 22 Predictions

Round 21 results:

Head-to-Head tips correct: 6 out of 8
Total for year: 105 out of 168

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Carlton	L	-$58
St.Kilda	W	$9
Fremantle	L	-$33
Collingwood	W	$5
Sydney	W	$13
Port Adel.	W	$100
Essendon	L	-$8
North Melb.	W	$31
Total ($451 outlay)		$58 profit
Percentage Return		13% profit

Round 22 predictions:

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Fremantle Carlton	1.00 100	1.60 2.42	Fremantle by 24 pts	Fremantle
Geelong West Coast	1.00 100	1.02 15.00	Geelong by 49 pts	Geelong
Hawthorn Collingwood	2.38 1.72	2.65 1.51	Collingwood by 14 pts	Hawthorn
Adelaide St.Kilda	4.00 1.33	2.52 1.55	St.Kilda by 32 pts	St.Kilda
W.Bulldogs Essendon	2.00 2.00	1.20 4.75	W.Bulldogs by 24 pts	Essendon
Brisbane Sydney	100 1.00	3.25 1.36	Sydney by 4 pts	Sydney
Richmond Port Adel.	100 1.00	1.70 2.20	Port Adel. by 24 pts	Port Adel.
Melbourne North Melb.	1.89 2.13	1.92 1.92	Melbourne by 1 pt	Melbourne

I need to win $206 this round to come out in front for the season overall.

Round 20 Results and Round 21 Predictions

Round 20 results:

Head-to-Head tips correct: 7 out of 8
Total for year: 99 out of 160

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Carlton	W	$32
Sydney	W	$101
W.Bulldogs	L	-$100
Port Adel.	W	$38
North Melb.	L	-$34
Total ($408 outlay)		$36 profit
Percentage Return		9% profit

Another winning round!

Round 21 predictions:

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Geelong Carlton	3.03 1.49	1.19 4.75	Carlton by 17 pts	Carlton
St.Kilda Richmond	1.00 100	1.09 7.50	St.Kilda by 49 pts	St.Kilda
Hawthorn Fremantle	1.75 2.33	1.10 7.00	Hawthorn by 3 pts	Fremantle
Collingwood Adelaide	1.00 100	1.05 10.00	Collingwood by 41 pts	Collingwood
Sydney W.Bulldogs	1.82 2.22	2.05 1.78	Sydney by 10 pts	Sydney
Port Adel. Melbourne	1.00 100	2.00 1.82	Port Adel. by 31 pts	Port Adel.
Essendon Brisbane	1.54 2.86	1.62 2.30	Essendon by 14 pts	Essendon
West Coast North Melb.	3.70 1.37	2.02 1.80	North Melb. by 7 pts	North Melb.

Round 19 Results and Round 20 Predictions

Round 19 results:

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 92 out of 152

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Carlton	W	$42
Fremantle	L	-$100
Sydney	W	$113
West Coast	L	-$23
Collingwood	W	$3
St.Kilda	W	$22
W.Bulldogs	W	$35
Total ($475 outlay)		$92 profit
Percentage Return		19% profit

My tipping form looks to be turning around now. Another nice profit this week, and edging closer to break-even for the season overall.

Round 20 predictions:

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Essendon Collingwood	8.33 1.14	7.10 1.11	Collingwood by 41 pts	none
Carlton Richmond	1.00 100	1.32 3.50	Carlton by 2 pts	Carlton
Fremantle Sydney	6.67 1.18	1.61 2.37	Sydney by 43 pts	Sydney
W.Bulldogs Geelong	1.00 100	2.40 1.60	W.Bulldogs by 38 pts	W.Bulldogs
Port Adel. West Coast	1.00 100	1.38 3.10	Port Adel. by 34 pts	Port Adel.
Brisbane Adelaide	2.08 1.92	1.92 1.90	Adelaide by 1 pt	none
Hawthorn Melbourne	1.75 2.33	1.67 2.22	Hawthorn by 1 pt	none
North Melb. St.Kilda	2.00 2.00	4.20 1.24	St.Kilda by 1 pt	North Melb.

Just 5 bets for the round.

Round 19 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Essendon Carlton	4.35 1.30	2.00 1.85	Carlton by 19 pts	Carlton
North Melb. Fremantle	100 1.00	1.86 1.98	Fremantle by 28 pts	Fremantle
Sydney Hawthorn	1.00 100	2.13 1.74	Sydney by 14 pts	Sydney
West Coast Brisbane	1.43 3.33	1.64 2.30	West Coast by 9 pts	West Coast
Geelong Collingwood	2.00 2.00	1.80 2.05	draw	Collingwood
St. Kilda Port Adel.	1.00 100	1.22 4.30	St. Kilda by 35 pts	St. Kilda
Melbourne Richmond	1.52 2.94	1.52 2.54	Melbourne by 8 pts	none
Adelaide W.Bulldogs	100 1.00	3.20 1.35	W.Bulldogs by 31 pts	W.Bulldogs

Rounds 16, 17 and 18 Results

Round 16

Head-to-Head tips correct: 4 out of 8
Total for year: 76 out of 128

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Geelong	L	-$34
St.Kilda	L	-$100
Hawthorn	W	$27
Essendon	L	-$100
Port Adel.	L	-$18
North Melb.	W	$100
Fremantle	W	$22
Total ($571 outlay)		$122 loss
Percentage Return		21% loss

I have been away for a week, so I didn't get a chance to post the predictions for rounds 17 and 18. Since those games are over, I'll just post the results.

Round 17

Head-to-Head tips correct: 6 out of 8
Total for year: 82 out of 136

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
St.Kilda	L	-$58
Collingwood	W	$11
Geelong	W	$6
Essendon	W	$181
Carlton	W	$87
W.Bulldogs	W	$8
Melbourne	W	$30
Total ($504 outlay)		$265 profit
Percentage Return		53% profit

One of the best results for the season! This makes the balance sheet look a little better, although I am still down overall for the season. Considering the only miss was the drawn match, I was very close to a clean sweep.


Round 18

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 87 out of 144

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
St.Kilda	L	-$100
Collingwood	W	$19
Hawthorn	L	-$6
Geelong	W	$23
Melbourne	W	$105
Adelaide	L	-$100
W.Bulldogs	W	$16
Fremantle	W	$38
Total ($706 outlay)		$5 loss
Percentage Return		1% loss

I basically broke even for that round.

On the season so far, I'm 5% down overall. Just 4 rounds to go to get back in the black.

Round 15 Results and Round 16 Predictions

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 72 out of 120

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Collingwood	W	$15
Hawthorn	L	-$34
Brisbane	L	-$25
Fremantle	L	-$100
Melbourne	L	-$100
North Melb.	W	$15
W.Bulldogs	W	$52
Total ($475 outlay)		$176 loss
Percentage Return		37% loss

Bad result. Hawthorn's narrow loss cost me big time.

Round 16 predictions:

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Adelaide Geelong	9.09 1.12	3.70 1.30	Geelong by 16 pts	Geelong
Collingwood St.Kilda	100 1.00	2.15 1.74	St.Kilda by 1 pt	St.Kilda
Hawthorn Brisbane	1.00 100	1.27 3.90	Hawthorn by 25 pts	Hawthorn
Essendon West Coast	1.00 100	1.45 2.85	Essendon by 14 pts	Essendon
W.Bulldogs Port Adel.	1.52 2.94	1.17 5.00	W.Bulldogs by 56 pts	Port Adel.
Carlton Sydney	1.67 2.50	1.64 2.32	Carlton by 1 pt	none
Richmond North Melb.	100 1.00	1.85 2.00	North Melb. by 22 pts	North Melb.
Fremantle Melbourne	1.00 100	1.22 4.55	Fremantle by 26 pts	Fremantle

Round 14 Results and Round 15 Predictions

Head-to-Head tips correct: 6 out of 8
Total for year: 67 out of 112

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Carlton	W	$24
W.Bulldogs	L	-$100
Collingwood	W	$6
Adelaide	W	$4
Geelong	W	$16
Sydney	L	-$50
St.Kilda	W	$4
Total ($479 outlay)		$96 loss
Percentage Return		20% loss

Kelly results this week, with a 20% loss. The unjustified confidence in the Bulldogs was my undoing. Although, if Griffen helped that last kick get through it would have been a different story. My 2 lost bets were missed by a total of 7 points. It just goes to show how small the margin is that I'm dealing with.

Round 15 predictions:

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Port Adel. Collingwood	100 1.00	5.55 1.15	Collingwood by 4 pts	Collingwood
West Coast Adelaide	3.23 1.45	2.77 1.45	Adelaide by 32 pts	none
Geelong Hawthorn	2.17 1.85	1.35 3.25	Hawthorn by 1 pt	Hawthorn
Brisbane St.Kilda	2.44 1.69	4.65 1.20	St.Kilda by 4 pts	Brisbane
Richmond Fremantle	100 1.00	2.67 1.48	Fremantle by 30 pts	Fremantle
Sydney North Melb.	100 1.00	1.44 2.82	North Melb. by 41 pts	North Melb.
Melbourne Essendon	1.67 2.50	1.92 1.92	Melbourne by 4 pts	Melbourne
Carlton W.Bulldogs	100 1.00	2.55 1.52	W.Bulldogs by 33 pts	W.Bulldogs

A lot of these bets don't sit well with my gut feeling. But then again, I have never tipped 8 winners based on gut feel, so you never know what will happen!

Round 14 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Carlton Brisbane	1.00 100	1.24 4.25	Carlton by 24 pts	Carlton
Hawthorn W.Bulldogs	100 1.00	2.30 1.62	W.Bulldogs by 18 pts	W.Bulldogs
Fremantle Port Adel.	1.14 8.33	1.12 6.35	Fremantle by 28 pts	none
Collingwood West Coast	1.00 100	1.06 9.30	Collingwood by 65 pts	Collingwood
Adelaide Essendon	1.59 2.70	1.65 2.25	Adelaide by 16 pts	Adelaide
Geelong North Melb.	1.00 100	1.16 5.30	Geelong by 30 pts	Geelong
Richmond Sydney	4.76 1.27	2.12 1.73	Sydney by 31 pts	Sydney
St. Kilda Melbourne	1.11 10.00	1.15 5.75	St. Kilda by 42 pts	St. Kilda

Since I am now showing the results of Kelly betting, here is the formula I am using to work out how much to bet:

Bet Amount = $100 x (AO/PO - 1)/(AO - 1)

where AO = Available Odds and PO = Predicted Odds.

$100 is the upper limit for any bet, which occurs when I predict a result which is 100% one way. The bet is proportionately reduced as the available odds for the team get bigger (you don't need to bet as much to get a reasonable win amount) and as the difference between my prediction and what is available (which attempts to reduce the risk).

Using the Sydney vs Richmond game as an example, the formula gives (for betting on Sydney):

Bet Amount = $100 x (1.73/1.27 - 1)/(1.73 - 1)
= $100 x 0.3622 / 0.73
= $50

And there you have it. This week looks promising since all 7 bet suggestions are being placed on the favourite.

Round 13 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 61 out of 104

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Essendon	L	-$24
Carlton	L	-$29
Brisbane	L	-$23
North Melb.	W	$12
W.Bulldogs	W	$35
St.Kilda	W	$68
Collindwood	W	$19
Melbourne	L	-$12
Total ($282 outlay)		$45 profit
Percentage Return		16% profit

It is good to see a profit at the bottom line. For a comparison, fixed betting results in a loss of $46 ($800 outlay) which is a loss of 6%. I'm quite confident going forward that Kelly betting will be better overall... and at the very least will reduce my risk.

On the season so far, fixed betting has lost 16% overall, and Kelly betting has lost 6%.

Round 12 Results and Round 13 Predictions

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 56 out of 96

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Carlton	L	-$100
Hawthorn	W	$40
Geelong	W	$23
Sydney	W	$100
W.Bulldogs	W	$27
Fremantle	L	-$100
Collingwood	L	-$100
Total ($700 outlay)		$110 loss
Percentage Return		16% loss

Another losing round... 6 in a row for fixed bets. Kelly is fairing quite a bit better overall, so starting at the end of round 13 I'll be publishing Kelly betting results instead.

So here are the round 13 predictions. (I know the round is almost over, but I have been busy and not had a chance to post):

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Hawthorn Essendon	2.27 1.79	1.60 2.40	Essendon by 1 pt	Essendon
Carlton Fremantle	1.39 3.57	1.66 2.28	Carlton by 19 pts	Carlton
Brisbane Richmond	1.30 4.35	1.43 2.90	Brisbane by 29 pts	Brisbane
North Melb. Port Adel.	1.22 5.56	1.37 3.22	North Melb. by 18 pts	North Melb.
West Coast W.Bulldogs	100 1.00	3.30 1.35	W.Bulldogs by 28 pt	W.Bulldogs
St.Kilda Geelong	1.89 2.13	3.17 1.36	St.Kilda by 1 pt	St.Kilda
Sydney Collingwood	3.57 1.39	2.25 1.65	Collingwood by 10 pts	Collingwood
Adelaide Melbourne	2.00 2.00	1.62 2.31	Adelaide by 24 pts	Melbourne

Round 12 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
North Melb. Carlton	6.67 1.18	3.85 1.28	Carlton by 48 pts	Carlton
Hawthorn Adelaide	1.00 100	1.40 3.05	Hawthorn by 44 pts	Hawthorn
Essendon Geelong	6.25 1.19	4.35 1.23	Geelong by 44 pts	Geelong
Port Adel. Sydney	2.50 1.67	1.85 2.00	Port Adel. by 26 pts	Sydney
Richmond West Coast	2.00 2.00	1.91 1.91	Richmond by 1 pt	none
W.Bulldogs Brisbane	1.00 100	1.27 3.90	W.Bulldogs by 43 pt	W.Bulldogs
Fremantle St.Kilda	1.00 100	1.68 2.23	Fremantle by 55 pts	Fremantle
Melbourne Collingwood	100 1.00	5.10 1.18	Collingwood by 39 pts	Collingwood

Round 11 Predictions and Results

I had a busy week last week, so didn't get a chance to post my tips. For those of you playing at home, here is what happened...

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Richmond St. Kilda	100 1.00	6.25 1.13	St. Kilda by 53 pts	St.Kilda
Carlton Melbourne	1.43 3.33	1.39 3.10	Carlton by 19 pts	none
Adelaide Fremantle	3.03 1.49	2.88 1.44	Fremantle by 49 pts	none
West Coast Geelong	100 1.00	6.45 1.13	Geelong by 36 pts	Geelong
North Melb. Brisbane	2.00 2.00	2.50 1.56	Brisbane by 1 pt	North Melb.
Sydney Essendon	2.00 2.00	1.73 2.15	Sydney by 16 pts	Essendon
Hawthorn Port Adel.	1.72 2.38	1.43 2.90	Hawthorn by 9 pts	Port Adel.
Collingwood W.Bulldogs	2.00 2.00	1.73 2.13	Draw	W.Bulldogs

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 51 out of 88

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
St.Kilda	W	$13
North Melb.	W	$150
Geelong	W	$13
Essendon	L	-$100
Port Adel.	L	-$100
W.Bulldogs	L	-$100
Total ($600 outlay)		$124 loss
Percentage Return		21% loss

Kelly Betting actually turned an 11% profit. At the halfway point of the season it seems obvious that Kelly Betting is going to be the betting method of choice.

So far, fixed amount betting has resulted in an overall loss of 17%, whereas Kelly betting is only 4% down. Selective betting could potentially make this more favourable, plus I have identified some areas of improvement in my system which I will look at implementing over summer.

I'll try and tackle some analysis and post more info about how the season is unfolding. Hopefully I can post that during the split round.

Round 10 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 4 out of 8
Total for year: 46 out of 80

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
W.Bulldogs	L	-$100
Geelong	W	$5
Port Adel.	L	-$100
Collingwood	L	-$100
St.Kilda	W	$24
Sydney	L	-$100
Carlton	W	$20
North Melb.	L	-$100
Total ($800 outlay)		$451 loss
Percentage Return		56% loss

Round 10 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Essendon W.Bulldogs	100 1.00	3.17 1.36	W.Bulldogs by 28 pts	W.Bulldogs
Geelong Melbourne	1.00 100	1.05 10.20	Geelong by 46 pts	Geelong
Port Adel. Richmond	1.15 7.69	1.19 4.75	Port Adel. by 19 pts	Port Adel.
Brisbane Collingwood	100 1.00	3.65 1.29	Collingwood by 26 pts	Collingwood
St. Kilda Adelaide	1.00 100	1.24 4.10	St. Kilda by 43 pts	St.Kilda
Hawthorn Sydney	2.00 2.00	1.30 3.55	Sydney by 1 pt	Sydney
Carlton West Coast	1.04 25.0	1.20 4.60	Carlton by 32 pts	Carlton
Fremantle North Melb.	1.25 5.00	1.11 6.70	Fremantle by 40 pts	North Melb.

Round 9 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 1 out of 8
Total for year: 42 out of 72

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Collingwood	L	-$100
Nth.Melb.	L	-$100
Sydney	L	-$100
Melbourne	W	$135
Richmond	L	-$100
Brisbane	L	-$100
Carlton	L	-$100
West Coast	L	-$100
Total ($800 outlay)		$565 loss
Percentage Return		71% loss

What a shocker!!!

Round 9 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Collingwood Geelong	1.79 2.27	2.07 1.76	Collingwood by 1 pt	Collingwood
Nth.Melb. W.Bulldogs	2.00 2.00	3.80 1.27	W.Bulldogs by 1 pt	Nth.Melb.
Sydney Fremantle	1.69 2.44	1.71 2.15	Sydney by 2 pts	Sydney
Melbourne Port Adel.	2.27 1.79	2.35 1.60	Port Adel. by 3 pts	Melbourne
Essendon Richmond	2.00 2.00	1.26 3.90	Richmond by 1 pt	Richmond
Adelaide Brisbane	6.25 1.19	2.22 1.66	Brisbane by 20 pts	Brisbane
Carlton Hawthorn	1.00 100	1.37 3.12	Carlton by 44 pts	Carlton
West Coast St. Kilda	1.56 2.78	2.00 1.82	West Coast by 1 pt	West Coast

Round 8 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 4 out of 8
Total for year: 41 out of 64

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Collingwood	W	$82
Sydney	L	-$100
Melbourne	L	$100
Brisbane	L	-$100
Adelaide	L	-$100
Richmond	L	-$100
Port Adel.	L	-$100
Essendon	W	$200
Total ($800 outlay)		$318 loss
Percentage Return		40% loss

Pretty bad week for tips and bets.

Round 8 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Fremantle Collingwood	2.27 1.79	2.04 1.82	Collingwood by 1 pt	Collingwood
W.Bulldogs Sydney	2.00 2.00	1.63 2.32	W.Bulldogs by 1 pt	Sydney
Melbourne West Coast	1.25 5.00	1.35 3.25	Melbourne by 3 pts	Melbourne
Brisbane Geelong	2.00 2.00	3.50 1.31	Brisbane by 2 pts	Brisbane
Nth Melb Adelaide	2.00 2.00	1.65 2.30	Nth Melb by 2 pts	Adelaide
Richmond Hawthorn	2.00 2.00	5.00 1.17	Hawthorn by 1 pt	Richmond
Port Adel. Carlton	1.67 2.50	1.85 2.00	Port Adel. by 16 pts	Port Adel.
St. Kilda Essendon	1.82 2.22	1.40 3.00	St. Kilda by 6 pts	Essendon

Round 7 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 6 out of 8
Total for year: 37 out of 56

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
W.Bulldogs	W	$25
West Coast	W	$64
Port Adelaide	W	$110
Nth.Melb.	L	-$100
Brisbane	L	-$100
Sydney	L	-$100
Richmond	L	-$100
Total ($700 outlay)		$201 loss
Percentage Return		29% loss

Results were not so good this week. I'm beginning to see a pattern of risk with betting on the outsiders - especially using the fixed price betting method. Interestingly, using Kelly betting, the result was only a 1% loss for the round.

I'll continue to display results for fixed bets for now, but if this trend continues I'll switch to reporting on Kelly bets.

Round 7 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Melbourne W.Bulldogs	100 1.00	4.15 1.25	W.Bulldogs by 35 pts	W.Bulldogs
West Coast Hawthorn	1.00 100	1.64 2.30	West Coast by 14 pts	West Coast
Essendon Port Adel.	2.50 1.67	1.76 2.10	Port Adelaide by 10 pts	Port Adelaide
Collingwood North Melb	1.49 3.03	1.21 4.60	Collingwood by 29 pts	North Melb
Brisbane Fremantle	1.00 100	1.48 2.75	Brisbane by 26 pts	Brisbane
Geelong Sydney	1.39 3.57	1.29 3.75	Geelong by 24 pts	Sydney
Adelaide Richmond	1.33 4.00	1.23 4.25	Adelaide by 26 pts	Richmond
St. Kilda Carlton	1.47 3.13	1.44 2.85	St. Kilda by 15 pts	none

A few outsiders (North Melbourne, Sydney and Richmond) to take a punt on this week, although only in the Port vs Essendon match does my system predict a different favourite going into the game. No margin available on the Saints vs Blues matchup.

Round 6 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 7 out of 8
Total for year: 31 out of 48

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
St.Kilda	W	$110
Nth.Melb.	W	$106
Adelaide	L	-$100
Brisbane	L	-$100
Geelong	W	$2
Collingwood	W	$55
Fremantle	W	$42
Total ($700 outlay)		$115 profit
Percentage Return		16% profit

Another successful round - that's 3 winning weeks in a row.

The results I have been showing in this blog are from using a fixed bet strategy. That is, each bet placed is for $100 and does not vary. Under this strategy, regardless of the odds predicted or the odds available on the game, the bet is always the same.

Another popular strategy is called Kelly betting. This involves adjusting your bet according to the odds available for the match, and what is predicted. I have been recording the results of this strategy too, so I'll post a summary of this at some stage - probably around the mid-season mark.

As a sneak preview, I can tell you that using Kelly betting so far has resulted in a much better return. After the first 6 rounds, fixed betting has yielded a 6% return on investment. ($4,500 bet for a $277 profit) whereas Kelly betting has produced a 17% profit ($2,196 bet for $380 profit). I'll provide more details of Kelly betting in the coming weeks.

Round 6 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
W.Bulldogs St. Kilda	8.33 1.14	1.76 2.10	St. Kilda by 29 pts	St.Kilda
Nth.Melb. Melbourne	1.00 100	2.06 1.80	Nth.Melb. by 27 pts	Nth.Melb.
Adelaide Port Adel.	2.50 1.67	2.55 1.54	Port Adel. by 1 pt	Adelaide
Essendon Hawthorn	2.70 1.59	2.67 1.50	Hawthorn by 13 pts	none
Sydney Brisbane	2.00 2.00	1.60 2.40	Sydney by 11 pts	Brisbane
Geelong Richmond	1.00 100	1.02 15.50	Geelong by 39 pts	Geelong
Carlton Collingwood	100 1.00	2.52 1.55	Collingwood by 31 pts	Collingwood
West Coast Fremantle	7.69 1.15	2.95 1.42	Fremantle by 36 pts	Fremantle

7 suggested bets this week. No margin available on the Essendon vs Hawthorn match, but Adelaide has drifted a bit to give me a small margin there. There are some interesting possibilities this round and anything could happen... except for Richmond beating Geelong. Can you believe those odds?

Round 5 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 24 out of 40

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
W.Bulldogs	W	$9
Sydney	W	$17
Brisbane	L	-$100
Collingwood	W	$31
Hawthorn	L	-$100
Fremantle	W	$4
Carlton	W	$350
Total ($700 outlay)		$211 profit
Percentage Return		30% profit

Thanks to a great victory by Carlton we had a great return for the round, and are actually back in front for the season so far.

After 5 rounds, $3800 worth of (theoretical) bets have been placed, for a profit of $162... a 4% return. OK, its not great, but I am in front. At the end of the season I also need to analyse the spread of bets and see where losses can be minimised. For example, the first 3 rounds are difficult to predict because the form guide is vague. So avoiding these round will help improve profit overall.

Round 5 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
W.Bulldogs Adelaide	1.00 100	1.09 7.50	W.Bulldogs by 52 pts	W.Bulldogs
Sydney West Coast	1.00 100	1.17 5.10	Sydney by 65 pts	Sydney
Melbourne Brisbane	100 1.00	3.20 1.35	Brisbane by 44 pts	Brisbane
Port Adel. St.Kilda	4.00 1.33	3.40 1.32	St.Kilda by 31 pts	none
Collingwood Essendon	1.23 5.26	1.31 3.50	Collingwood by 24 pts	Collingwood
Hawthorn Nth.Melb.	1.20 5.88	1.33 3.35	Hawthorn by 36 pts	Hawthorn
Fremantle Richmond	1.00 100	1.04 11.20	Fremantle by 40 pts	Fremantle
Carlton Geelong	1.00 100	4.50 1.21	Carlton by 1 pts	Carlton

Most matches this week are very one-sided, and my predicted odds line up quite well against them... with one exception. How will Carlton go this week against Geelong? The blues are on a high after regaining Judd last round and coming away with a convincing win. Go blues!

Round 4 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 7 out of 8
Total for year: 19 out of 32

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
West Coast	W	$58
Nth.Melb	L	-$100
Carlton	W	$125
Collingwood	W	$60
Brisbane	W	$99
Melbourne	W	$30
Port Adelaide	L	-$100
St.Kilda	W	$30
Total ($800 outlay)		$202 profit
Percentage Return		25% profit

A much better return this week. No excuses now that each team's recent form should be easier to judge.

Round 4 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
West Coast Essendon	1.49 3.03	1.58 2.39	West Coast by 10 pts	West Coast
Nth. Melb. Sydney	2.33 1.75	2.52 1.53	Sydney by 1 pt	Nth. Melb.
Adelaide Carlton	2.00 2.00	1.67 2.25	Carlton by 1 pt	Carlton
Collingwood Hawthorn	1.00 100	1.60 2.35	Collingwood by 3 pts	Collingwood
Brisbane W. Bulldogs	1.92 2.08	1.99 1.83	Brisbane by 4 pts	Brisbane
Richmond Melbourne	100 1.00	3.55 1.30	Melbourne by 10 pts	Melbourne
Geelong Port Adel.	2.00 2.00	1.13 6.05	Port Adel. by 1 pt	Port Adel.
St. Kilda Fremantle	1.0 100	1.30 3.55	St.Kilda by 3 pts	St.Kilda

I'm hoping for a big upset this week with Port Adelaide to win on the road against Geelong.

Round 3 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 2 out of 8
Total for year: 12 out of 24

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Collingwood	L	-$100
West Coast	L	-$100
Sydney	W	$10
Carlton	L	-$100
Melbourne	W	$160
Hawthorn	L	-$100
Geelong	L	-$100
Total ($700 outlay)		$330 loss
Percentage Return		47% loss

My predictions this week were as bad as Carlton's performance on Saturday night... full of errors!

Next week there are no excuses. 3 rounds should be enough to get a decent form line on the teams, so I'm hoping to turn it around then.

Round 3 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
St. Kilda Collingwood	2.38 1.72	1.49 2.63	Collingwood by 1 pt	Collingwood
North Melb. West Coast	100 1.00	1.85 1.96	West Coast by 38 pts	West Coast
Port Adel. Brisbane	2.00 2.00	1.85 1.96	Port Adel. by 1 pt	none
Sydney Richmond	1.00 100	1.10 7.10	Sydney by 28 pts	Sydney
Carlton Essendon	1.47 3.13	1.52 2.55	Carlton by 18 pts	Carlton
Melbourne Adelaide	1.59 2.70	2.60 1.50	Melbourne by 6 pts	Melbourne
W. Bulldogs Hawthorn	2.22 1.82	1.53 2.52	Hawthorn by 1 pt	Hawthorn
Fremantle Geelong	3.23 1.45	2.50 1.54	Geelong by 0 pts	Geelong

One match this week does not provide a bet, due to the available odds for each team shorter than my predictions.

Based on some feedback I have updated the layout of my table of predictions. I hope this makes things easier to understand. Here are some notes to help explain the numbers and terms I am using.

The Head-to-head tips are for the team most likely to win the match, shown as the Predicted Winner in the table. Most of the time these teams will also be favourites with the betting agencies.

Predicted Odds are found by calculating a percentage chance of winning, and converting this to decimal odds. Decimal odds show the unit amount returned on a winning bet, including the initial unit of bet placed. For example, if a team has a 50% chance of winning, the decimal odds will be 2.00. That is, for a $1 bet, a win will give you $2 back (including the $1 you used to place the bet), which is $1 profit. A loss will obviously mean you don't get your $1 bet back.

Available Odds are the decimal odds that betting agencies are offering at the time I post. Because betting agencies aim to make a profit, there is a profit margin built in to the odds in their favour. For example, in an match where both teams are equal chance of winning (ignoring a draw) the real odds would be 2.00 for each team, but the agency odds would be more like 1.95 for each team.

The Suggested Bet compares the predicted odds to the available odds and suggests placing a bet on the team that has available odds in YOUR favour, compared to what is predicted. This may result in placing bets on a team that is not necessarily expected to win most times, but on average will give you a better return in the long run.

Round 2 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 4 out of 8
Total for year: 10 out of 16

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Carlton	L	-$100
Melbourne	L	-$100
Port Adelaide	W	$149
Nth Melb	L	-$100
Sydney	W	$147
Fremantle	W	$180
Richmond	L	-$100
Hawthorn	L	-$100
Total ($800 outlay)		$24 loss
Percentage Return		3% loss

I ended up with a small loss this week, bit it could have been a completely different story if Melbourne had hung on against Collingwood. 2 points the other way, and I would have been $1000 up!

The head-to-head tipping was quite poor. 4 out of 8 is no better than guessing, so I'm hoping for big improvements there. As I said last week, the predictions are based on recent form so next round we will be starting to get a reasonable form guide for the teams.

Round 2 Predictions

Round 2 predictions:

Predicted Odds	Available Odds
Brisbane 1.52 vs Carlton 2.94	1.34 vs 3.30
Collingwood 1.20 vs Melbourne 5.88	1.05 vs 10.10
West Coast 1.82 vs Port Adelaide 2.22	1.54 vs 2.49
St.Kilda 2.13 vs North Melbourne 1.89	1.13 vs 6.05
Adelaide 2.78 vs Sydney 1.56	1.54 vs 2.47
Essendon 2.56 vs Fremantle 1.64	1.44 vs 2.80
Richmond 1.59 vs Western Bulldogs 2.70	10.15 vs 1.05
Hawthorn 1.22 vs Geelong 5.56	2.55 vs 1.52

Round 2 has thrown up some interesting predictions for me. The program says the winners will be Brisbane, Collingwood, West Coast, North Melbourne, Sydney, Fremantle, Richmond, Hawthorn. 2 of these (North Melb. and Richmond) are significantly opposed to the odds available from the betting agency. So I'm hoping to predict 2 big upsets here.

Another anomaly comes with the betting suggestion. In 3 cases (Carlton, Melbourne, Port Adelaide), I am supposed to bet on the outsider. This is highlighted by the very generous odds on offer for Melbourne to beat Collingwood at 10 to 1.

I'll finish by saying I'm not too confident with the predictions this week. My program uses recent form as a guide, and so early in the year there are not many games to judge recent form, so we can expect some improvement as the year goes on.

Round 1 Tips and Results

So, here are my round 1 predictions:

Predicted Odds	Available Odds
Richmond 7.69 vs Carlton 1.15	3.00 vs 1.45
Geelong 1.33 vs Essendon 4.00	1.18 vs 4.50
Melbourne 7.69 vs Hawthorn 1.15	4.50 vs 1.18
Sydney 4.55 vs St. Kilda 1.28	2.60 vs 1.45
Brisbane 1.20 vs West Coast 5.88	1.30 vs 3.30
Port Adelaide 1.20 vs North Melb. 5.88	1.40 vs 2.80
Western Bulldogs 2.00 vs Collingwood 2.00	1.60 vs 2.25
Adelaide 1.28 vs Fremantle 4.55	1.80 vs 1.95

Basically, the first column shows what my program predicts for the odds for each match. The second column contains the odds available from a betting agency.

When deciding which bets to place, its about choosing the teams with predicted odds that are lower than the available odds. So, from the table above, we place bets on the teams in bold.

The results of the weekend, placing $100 on each applicable match, would have given the following wins/losses:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Carlton	W	$45
Essendon	L	-$100
Hawthorn	W	$18
St. Kilda	W	$45
Brisbane	W	$30
Port Adelaide	W	$40
Collingwood	W	$125
Adelaide	L	-$100
Total ($800 outlay)		$103 profit
Percentage Return		13%

Well, that's actually a pretty good result... a 13% return on investment. I'll also keep a tally of tips predicted for the season. That's 6 for this week.

Now, before you say anything, it might look suspicious that I have posted the predictions and results after the round has completed. Well, lets just say I wanted to make sure it wasn't a complete failure before I even started this thing.

However, I promise to post my predictions for next round BEFORE the games start.

Story so far...

For my first post, here is the story behind this blog and how it came about.
In 2003 I was between IT jobs and thought of a little project in order to learn VB.NET. I came up with the idea of using statistics from past AFL footy games in order to predict the winners in future matches. I didn't know if it would work, but I gave it a go anyway.
Over the next few years I built up the statistical database and worked out different ways of analysing the data. After a couple of trial runs in footy tipping competitions, I had very limited success - not quite what I was looking for.
I put it aside for a couple of years, and the recently began looking at it again after talking to a friend (thanks Ian) who was creating his own sports betting application. I started to take another path where it is not necessary to predict the winner every time, but to be able to come up with odds that are closer to results compared with what is offered by betting agencies. If this can be done, then in the long run I can use sports betting to come out ahead.
And so this is where I'm at. This season will be my first full trial run of how my system goes. I won't actually be placing any bets - I'm not that confident yet! However, I will be documenting my predictions, and showing what could be done this season if it was used for real.