Round 13 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 61 out of 104

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Essendon	L	-$24
Carlton	L	-$29
Brisbane	L	-$23
North Melb.	W	$12
W.Bulldogs	W	$35
St.Kilda	W	$68
Collindwood	W	$19
Melbourne	L	-$12
Total ($282 outlay)		$45 profit
Percentage Return		16% profit

It is good to see a profit at the bottom line. For a comparison, fixed betting results in a loss of $46 ($800 outlay) which is a loss of 6%. I'm quite confident going forward that Kelly betting will be better overall... and at the very least will reduce my risk.

On the season so far, fixed betting has lost 16% overall, and Kelly betting has lost 6%.

Round 12 Results and Round 13 Predictions

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 56 out of 96

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Carlton	L	-$100
Hawthorn	W	$40
Geelong	W	$23
Sydney	W	$100
W.Bulldogs	W	$27
Fremantle	L	-$100
Collingwood	L	-$100
Total ($700 outlay)		$110 loss
Percentage Return		16% loss

Another losing round... 6 in a row for fixed bets. Kelly is fairing quite a bit better overall, so starting at the end of round 13 I'll be publishing Kelly betting results instead.

So here are the round 13 predictions. (I know the round is almost over, but I have been busy and not had a chance to post):

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Hawthorn Essendon	2.27 1.79	1.60 2.40	Essendon by 1 pt	Essendon
Carlton Fremantle	1.39 3.57	1.66 2.28	Carlton by 19 pts	Carlton
Brisbane Richmond	1.30 4.35	1.43 2.90	Brisbane by 29 pts	Brisbane
North Melb. Port Adel.	1.22 5.56	1.37 3.22	North Melb. by 18 pts	North Melb.
West Coast W.Bulldogs	100 1.00	3.30 1.35	W.Bulldogs by 28 pt	W.Bulldogs
St.Kilda Geelong	1.89 2.13	3.17 1.36	St.Kilda by 1 pt	St.Kilda
Sydney Collingwood	3.57 1.39	2.25 1.65	Collingwood by 10 pts	Collingwood
Adelaide Melbourne	2.00 2.00	1.62 2.31	Adelaide by 24 pts	Melbourne

Round 12 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
North Melb. Carlton	6.67 1.18	3.85 1.28	Carlton by 48 pts	Carlton
Hawthorn Adelaide	1.00 100	1.40 3.05	Hawthorn by 44 pts	Hawthorn
Essendon Geelong	6.25 1.19	4.35 1.23	Geelong by 44 pts	Geelong
Port Adel. Sydney	2.50 1.67	1.85 2.00	Port Adel. by 26 pts	Sydney
Richmond West Coast	2.00 2.00	1.91 1.91	Richmond by 1 pt	none
W.Bulldogs Brisbane	1.00 100	1.27 3.90	W.Bulldogs by 43 pt	W.Bulldogs
Fremantle St.Kilda	1.00 100	1.68 2.23	Fremantle by 55 pts	Fremantle
Melbourne Collingwood	100 1.00	5.10 1.18	Collingwood by 39 pts	Collingwood

Round 11 Predictions and Results

I had a busy week last week, so didn't get a chance to post my tips. For those of you playing at home, here is what happened...

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Richmond St. Kilda	100 1.00	6.25 1.13	St. Kilda by 53 pts	St.Kilda
Carlton Melbourne	1.43 3.33	1.39 3.10	Carlton by 19 pts	none
Adelaide Fremantle	3.03 1.49	2.88 1.44	Fremantle by 49 pts	none
West Coast Geelong	100 1.00	6.45 1.13	Geelong by 36 pts	Geelong
North Melb. Brisbane	2.00 2.00	2.50 1.56	Brisbane by 1 pt	North Melb.
Sydney Essendon	2.00 2.00	1.73 2.15	Sydney by 16 pts	Essendon
Hawthorn Port Adel.	1.72 2.38	1.43 2.90	Hawthorn by 9 pts	Port Adel.
Collingwood W.Bulldogs	2.00 2.00	1.73 2.13	Draw	W.Bulldogs

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 51 out of 88

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
St.Kilda	W	$13
North Melb.	W	$150
Geelong	W	$13
Essendon	L	-$100
Port Adel.	L	-$100
W.Bulldogs	L	-$100
Total ($600 outlay)		$124 loss
Percentage Return		21% loss

Kelly Betting actually turned an 11% profit. At the halfway point of the season it seems obvious that Kelly Betting is going to be the betting method of choice.

So far, fixed amount betting has resulted in an overall loss of 17%, whereas Kelly betting is only 4% down. Selective betting could potentially make this more favourable, plus I have identified some areas of improvement in my system which I will look at implementing over summer.

I'll try and tackle some analysis and post more info about how the season is unfolding. Hopefully I can post that during the split round.

Round 10 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 4 out of 8
Total for year: 46 out of 80

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
W.Bulldogs	L	-$100
Geelong	W	$5
Port Adel.	L	-$100
Collingwood	L	-$100
St.Kilda	W	$24
Sydney	L	-$100
Carlton	W	$20
North Melb.	L	-$100
Total ($800 outlay)		$451 loss
Percentage Return		56% loss