Round 15 Results and Round 16 Predictions

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 72 out of 120

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Collingwood	W	$15
Hawthorn	L	-$34
Brisbane	L	-$25
Fremantle	L	-$100
Melbourne	L	-$100
North Melb.	W	$15
W.Bulldogs	W	$52
Total ($475 outlay)		$176 loss
Percentage Return		37% loss

Bad result. Hawthorn's narrow loss cost me big time.

Round 16 predictions:

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Adelaide Geelong	9.09 1.12	3.70 1.30	Geelong by 16 pts	Geelong
Collingwood St.Kilda	100 1.00	2.15 1.74	St.Kilda by 1 pt	St.Kilda
Hawthorn Brisbane	1.00 100	1.27 3.90	Hawthorn by 25 pts	Hawthorn
Essendon West Coast	1.00 100	1.45 2.85	Essendon by 14 pts	Essendon
W.Bulldogs Port Adel.	1.52 2.94	1.17 5.00	W.Bulldogs by 56 pts	Port Adel.
Carlton Sydney	1.67 2.50	1.64 2.32	Carlton by 1 pt	none
Richmond North Melb.	100 1.00	1.85 2.00	North Melb. by 22 pts	North Melb.
Fremantle Melbourne	1.00 100	1.22 4.55	Fremantle by 26 pts	Fremantle

Round 14 Results and Round 15 Predictions

Head-to-Head tips correct: 6 out of 8
Total for year: 67 out of 112

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Carlton	W	$24
W.Bulldogs	L	-$100
Collingwood	W	$6
Adelaide	W	$4
Geelong	W	$16
Sydney	L	-$50
St.Kilda	W	$4
Total ($479 outlay)		$96 loss
Percentage Return		20% loss

Kelly results this week, with a 20% loss. The unjustified confidence in the Bulldogs was my undoing. Although, if Griffen helped that last kick get through it would have been a different story. My 2 lost bets were missed by a total of 7 points. It just goes to show how small the margin is that I'm dealing with.

Round 15 predictions:

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Port Adel. Collingwood	100 1.00	5.55 1.15	Collingwood by 4 pts	Collingwood
West Coast Adelaide	3.23 1.45	2.77 1.45	Adelaide by 32 pts	none
Geelong Hawthorn	2.17 1.85	1.35 3.25	Hawthorn by 1 pt	Hawthorn
Brisbane St.Kilda	2.44 1.69	4.65 1.20	St.Kilda by 4 pts	Brisbane
Richmond Fremantle	100 1.00	2.67 1.48	Fremantle by 30 pts	Fremantle
Sydney North Melb.	100 1.00	1.44 2.82	North Melb. by 41 pts	North Melb.
Melbourne Essendon	1.67 2.50	1.92 1.92	Melbourne by 4 pts	Melbourne
Carlton W.Bulldogs	100 1.00	2.55 1.52	W.Bulldogs by 33 pts	W.Bulldogs

A lot of these bets don't sit well with my gut feeling. But then again, I have never tipped 8 winners based on gut feel, so you never know what will happen!

Round 14 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Carlton Brisbane	1.00 100	1.24 4.25	Carlton by 24 pts	Carlton
Hawthorn W.Bulldogs	100 1.00	2.30 1.62	W.Bulldogs by 18 pts	W.Bulldogs
Fremantle Port Adel.	1.14 8.33	1.12 6.35	Fremantle by 28 pts	none
Collingwood West Coast	1.00 100	1.06 9.30	Collingwood by 65 pts	Collingwood
Adelaide Essendon	1.59 2.70	1.65 2.25	Adelaide by 16 pts	Adelaide
Geelong North Melb.	1.00 100	1.16 5.30	Geelong by 30 pts	Geelong
Richmond Sydney	4.76 1.27	2.12 1.73	Sydney by 31 pts	Sydney
St. Kilda Melbourne	1.11 10.00	1.15 5.75	St. Kilda by 42 pts	St. Kilda

Since I am now showing the results of Kelly betting, here is the formula I am using to work out how much to bet:

Bet Amount = $100 x (AO/PO - 1)/(AO - 1)

where AO = Available Odds and PO = Predicted Odds.

$100 is the upper limit for any bet, which occurs when I predict a result which is 100% one way. The bet is proportionately reduced as the available odds for the team get bigger (you don't need to bet as much to get a reasonable win amount) and as the difference between my prediction and what is available (which attempts to reduce the risk).

Using the Sydney vs Richmond game as an example, the formula gives (for betting on Sydney):

Bet Amount = $100 x (1.73/1.27 - 1)/(1.73 - 1)
= $100 x 0.3622 / 0.73
= $50

And there you have it. This week looks promising since all 7 bet suggestions are being placed on the favourite.