Round 10 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Essendon W.Bulldogs	100 1.00	3.17 1.36	W.Bulldogs by 28 pts	W.Bulldogs
Geelong Melbourne	1.00 100	1.05 10.20	Geelong by 46 pts	Geelong
Port Adel. Richmond	1.15 7.69	1.19 4.75	Port Adel. by 19 pts	Port Adel.
Brisbane Collingwood	100 1.00	3.65 1.29	Collingwood by 26 pts	Collingwood
St. Kilda Adelaide	1.00 100	1.24 4.10	St. Kilda by 43 pts	St.Kilda
Hawthorn Sydney	2.00 2.00	1.30 3.55	Sydney by 1 pt	Sydney
Carlton West Coast	1.04 25.0	1.20 4.60	Carlton by 32 pts	Carlton
Fremantle North Melb.	1.25 5.00	1.11 6.70	Fremantle by 40 pts	North Melb.

Round 9 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 1 out of 8
Total for year: 42 out of 72

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Collingwood	L	-$100
Nth.Melb.	L	-$100
Sydney	L	-$100
Melbourne	W	$135
Richmond	L	-$100
Brisbane	L	-$100
Carlton	L	-$100
West Coast	L	-$100
Total ($800 outlay)		$565 loss
Percentage Return		71% loss

What a shocker!!!

Round 9 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Collingwood Geelong	1.79 2.27	2.07 1.76	Collingwood by 1 pt	Collingwood
Nth.Melb. W.Bulldogs	2.00 2.00	3.80 1.27	W.Bulldogs by 1 pt	Nth.Melb.
Sydney Fremantle	1.69 2.44	1.71 2.15	Sydney by 2 pts	Sydney
Melbourne Port Adel.	2.27 1.79	2.35 1.60	Port Adel. by 3 pts	Melbourne
Essendon Richmond	2.00 2.00	1.26 3.90	Richmond by 1 pt	Richmond
Adelaide Brisbane	6.25 1.19	2.22 1.66	Brisbane by 20 pts	Brisbane
Carlton Hawthorn	1.00 100	1.37 3.12	Carlton by 44 pts	Carlton
West Coast St. Kilda	1.56 2.78	2.00 1.82	West Coast by 1 pt	West Coast

Round 8 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 4 out of 8
Total for year: 41 out of 64

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Collingwood	W	$82
Sydney	L	-$100
Melbourne	L	$100
Brisbane	L	-$100
Adelaide	L	-$100
Richmond	L	-$100
Port Adel.	L	-$100
Essendon	W	$200
Total ($800 outlay)		$318 loss
Percentage Return		40% loss

Pretty bad week for tips and bets.

Round 8 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Fremantle Collingwood	2.27 1.79	2.04 1.82	Collingwood by 1 pt	Collingwood
W.Bulldogs Sydney	2.00 2.00	1.63 2.32	W.Bulldogs by 1 pt	Sydney
Melbourne West Coast	1.25 5.00	1.35 3.25	Melbourne by 3 pts	Melbourne
Brisbane Geelong	2.00 2.00	3.50 1.31	Brisbane by 2 pts	Brisbane
Nth Melb Adelaide	2.00 2.00	1.65 2.30	Nth Melb by 2 pts	Adelaide
Richmond Hawthorn	2.00 2.00	5.00 1.17	Hawthorn by 1 pt	Richmond
Port Adel. Carlton	1.67 2.50	1.85 2.00	Port Adel. by 16 pts	Port Adel.
St. Kilda Essendon	1.82 2.22	1.40 3.00	St. Kilda by 6 pts	Essendon

Round 7 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 6 out of 8
Total for year: 37 out of 56

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
W.Bulldogs	W	$25
West Coast	W	$64
Port Adelaide	W	$110
Nth.Melb.	L	-$100
Brisbane	L	-$100
Sydney	L	-$100
Richmond	L	-$100
Total ($700 outlay)		$201 loss
Percentage Return		29% loss

Results were not so good this week. I'm beginning to see a pattern of risk with betting on the outsiders - especially using the fixed price betting method. Interestingly, using Kelly betting, the result was only a 1% loss for the round.

I'll continue to display results for fixed bets for now, but if this trend continues I'll switch to reporting on Kelly bets.

Round 7 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Melbourne W.Bulldogs	100 1.00	4.15 1.25	W.Bulldogs by 35 pts	W.Bulldogs
West Coast Hawthorn	1.00 100	1.64 2.30	West Coast by 14 pts	West Coast
Essendon Port Adel.	2.50 1.67	1.76 2.10	Port Adelaide by 10 pts	Port Adelaide
Collingwood North Melb	1.49 3.03	1.21 4.60	Collingwood by 29 pts	North Melb
Brisbane Fremantle	1.00 100	1.48 2.75	Brisbane by 26 pts	Brisbane
Geelong Sydney	1.39 3.57	1.29 3.75	Geelong by 24 pts	Sydney
Adelaide Richmond	1.33 4.00	1.23 4.25	Adelaide by 26 pts	Richmond
St. Kilda Carlton	1.47 3.13	1.44 2.85	St. Kilda by 15 pts	none

A few outsiders (North Melbourne, Sydney and Richmond) to take a punt on this week, although only in the Port vs Essendon match does my system predict a different favourite going into the game. No margin available on the Saints vs Blues matchup.

Round 6 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 7 out of 8
Total for year: 31 out of 48

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
St.Kilda	W	$110
Nth.Melb.	W	$106
Adelaide	L	-$100
Brisbane	L	-$100
Geelong	W	$2
Collingwood	W	$55
Fremantle	W	$42
Total ($700 outlay)		$115 profit
Percentage Return		16% profit

Another successful round - that's 3 winning weeks in a row.

The results I have been showing in this blog are from using a fixed bet strategy. That is, each bet placed is for $100 and does not vary. Under this strategy, regardless of the odds predicted or the odds available on the game, the bet is always the same.

Another popular strategy is called Kelly betting. This involves adjusting your bet according to the odds available for the match, and what is predicted. I have been recording the results of this strategy too, so I'll post a summary of this at some stage - probably around the mid-season mark.

As a sneak preview, I can tell you that using Kelly betting so far has resulted in a much better return. After the first 6 rounds, fixed betting has yielded a 6% return on investment. ($4,500 bet for a $277 profit) whereas Kelly betting has produced a 17% profit ($2,196 bet for $380 profit). I'll provide more details of Kelly betting in the coming weeks.