Round 6 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
W.Bulldogs St. Kilda	8.33 1.14	1.76 2.10	St. Kilda by 29 pts	St.Kilda
Nth.Melb. Melbourne	1.00 100	2.06 1.80	Nth.Melb. by 27 pts	Nth.Melb.
Adelaide Port Adel.	2.50 1.67	2.55 1.54	Port Adel. by 1 pt	Adelaide
Essendon Hawthorn	2.70 1.59	2.67 1.50	Hawthorn by 13 pts	none
Sydney Brisbane	2.00 2.00	1.60 2.40	Sydney by 11 pts	Brisbane
Geelong Richmond	1.00 100	1.02 15.50	Geelong by 39 pts	Geelong
Carlton Collingwood	100 1.00	2.52 1.55	Collingwood by 31 pts	Collingwood
West Coast Fremantle	7.69 1.15	2.95 1.42	Fremantle by 36 pts	Fremantle

7 suggested bets this week. No margin available on the Essendon vs Hawthorn match, but Adelaide has drifted a bit to give me a small margin there. There are some interesting possibilities this round and anything could happen... except for Richmond beating Geelong. Can you believe those odds?

Round 5 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 24 out of 40

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
W.Bulldogs	W	$9
Sydney	W	$17
Brisbane	L	-$100
Collingwood	W	$31
Hawthorn	L	-$100
Fremantle	W	$4
Carlton	W	$350
Total ($700 outlay)		$211 profit
Percentage Return		30% profit

Thanks to a great victory by Carlton we had a great return for the round, and are actually back in front for the season so far.

After 5 rounds, $3800 worth of (theoretical) bets have been placed, for a profit of $162... a 4% return. OK, its not great, but I am in front. At the end of the season I also need to analyse the spread of bets and see where losses can be minimised. For example, the first 3 rounds are difficult to predict because the form guide is vague. So avoiding these round will help improve profit overall.

Round 5 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
W.Bulldogs Adelaide	1.00 100	1.09 7.50	W.Bulldogs by 52 pts	W.Bulldogs
Sydney West Coast	1.00 100	1.17 5.10	Sydney by 65 pts	Sydney
Melbourne Brisbane	100 1.00	3.20 1.35	Brisbane by 44 pts	Brisbane
Port Adel. St.Kilda	4.00 1.33	3.40 1.32	St.Kilda by 31 pts	none
Collingwood Essendon	1.23 5.26	1.31 3.50	Collingwood by 24 pts	Collingwood
Hawthorn Nth.Melb.	1.20 5.88	1.33 3.35	Hawthorn by 36 pts	Hawthorn
Fremantle Richmond	1.00 100	1.04 11.20	Fremantle by 40 pts	Fremantle
Carlton Geelong	1.00 100	4.50 1.21	Carlton by 1 pts	Carlton

Most matches this week are very one-sided, and my predicted odds line up quite well against them... with one exception. How will Carlton go this week against Geelong? The blues are on a high after regaining Judd last round and coming away with a convincing win. Go blues!

Round 4 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 7 out of 8
Total for year: 19 out of 32

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
West Coast	W	$58
Nth.Melb	L	-$100
Carlton	W	$125
Collingwood	W	$60
Brisbane	W	$99
Melbourne	W	$30
Port Adelaide	L	-$100
St.Kilda	W	$30
Total ($800 outlay)		$202 profit
Percentage Return		25% profit

A much better return this week. No excuses now that each team's recent form should be easier to judge.

Round 4 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
West Coast Essendon	1.49 3.03	1.58 2.39	West Coast by 10 pts	West Coast
Nth. Melb. Sydney	2.33 1.75	2.52 1.53	Sydney by 1 pt	Nth. Melb.
Adelaide Carlton	2.00 2.00	1.67 2.25	Carlton by 1 pt	Carlton
Collingwood Hawthorn	1.00 100	1.60 2.35	Collingwood by 3 pts	Collingwood
Brisbane W. Bulldogs	1.92 2.08	1.99 1.83	Brisbane by 4 pts	Brisbane
Richmond Melbourne	100 1.00	3.55 1.30	Melbourne by 10 pts	Melbourne
Geelong Port Adel.	2.00 2.00	1.13 6.05	Port Adel. by 1 pt	Port Adel.
St. Kilda Fremantle	1.0 100	1.30 3.55	St.Kilda by 3 pts	St.Kilda

I'm hoping for a big upset this week with Port Adelaide to win on the road against Geelong.

Round 3 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 2 out of 8
Total for year: 12 out of 24

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Collingwood	L	-$100
West Coast	L	-$100
Sydney	W	$10
Carlton	L	-$100
Melbourne	W	$160
Hawthorn	L	-$100
Geelong	L	-$100
Total ($700 outlay)		$330 loss
Percentage Return		47% loss

My predictions this week were as bad as Carlton's performance on Saturday night... full of errors!

Next week there are no excuses. 3 rounds should be enough to get a decent form line on the teams, so I'm hoping to turn it around then.

Round 3 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
St. Kilda Collingwood	2.38 1.72	1.49 2.63	Collingwood by 1 pt	Collingwood
North Melb. West Coast	100 1.00	1.85 1.96	West Coast by 38 pts	West Coast
Port Adel. Brisbane	2.00 2.00	1.85 1.96	Port Adel. by 1 pt	none
Sydney Richmond	1.00 100	1.10 7.10	Sydney by 28 pts	Sydney
Carlton Essendon	1.47 3.13	1.52 2.55	Carlton by 18 pts	Carlton
Melbourne Adelaide	1.59 2.70	2.60 1.50	Melbourne by 6 pts	Melbourne
W. Bulldogs Hawthorn	2.22 1.82	1.53 2.52	Hawthorn by 1 pt	Hawthorn
Fremantle Geelong	3.23 1.45	2.50 1.54	Geelong by 0 pts	Geelong

One match this week does not provide a bet, due to the available odds for each team shorter than my predictions.

Based on some feedback I have updated the layout of my table of predictions. I hope this makes things easier to understand. Here are some notes to help explain the numbers and terms I am using.

The Head-to-head tips are for the team most likely to win the match, shown as the Predicted Winner in the table. Most of the time these teams will also be favourites with the betting agencies.

Predicted Odds are found by calculating a percentage chance of winning, and converting this to decimal odds. Decimal odds show the unit amount returned on a winning bet, including the initial unit of bet placed. For example, if a team has a 50% chance of winning, the decimal odds will be 2.00. That is, for a $1 bet, a win will give you $2 back (including the $1 you used to place the bet), which is $1 profit. A loss will obviously mean you don't get your $1 bet back.

Available Odds are the decimal odds that betting agencies are offering at the time I post. Because betting agencies aim to make a profit, there is a profit margin built in to the odds in their favour. For example, in an match where both teams are equal chance of winning (ignoring a draw) the real odds would be 2.00 for each team, but the agency odds would be more like 1.95 for each team.

The Suggested Bet compares the predicted odds to the available odds and suggests placing a bet on the team that has available odds in YOUR favour, compared to what is predicted. This may result in placing bets on a team that is not necessarily expected to win most times, but on average will give you a better return in the long run.

Round 2 Results

Head-to-Head tips correct: 4 out of 8
Total for year: 10 out of 16

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Carlton	L	-$100
Melbourne	L	-$100
Port Adelaide	W	$149
Nth Melb	L	-$100
Sydney	W	$147
Fremantle	W	$180
Richmond	L	-$100
Hawthorn	L	-$100
Total ($800 outlay)		$24 loss
Percentage Return		3% loss

I ended up with a small loss this week, bit it could have been a completely different story if Melbourne had hung on against Collingwood. 2 points the other way, and I would have been $1000 up!

The head-to-head tipping was quite poor. 4 out of 8 is no better than guessing, so I'm hoping for big improvements there. As I said last week, the predictions are based on recent form so next round we will be starting to get a reasonable form guide for the teams.

Round 2 Predictions

Round 2 predictions:

Predicted Odds	Available Odds
Brisbane 1.52 vs Carlton 2.94	1.34 vs 3.30
Collingwood 1.20 vs Melbourne 5.88	1.05 vs 10.10
West Coast 1.82 vs Port Adelaide 2.22	1.54 vs 2.49
St.Kilda 2.13 vs North Melbourne 1.89	1.13 vs 6.05
Adelaide 2.78 vs Sydney 1.56	1.54 vs 2.47
Essendon 2.56 vs Fremantle 1.64	1.44 vs 2.80
Richmond 1.59 vs Western Bulldogs 2.70	10.15 vs 1.05
Hawthorn 1.22 vs Geelong 5.56	2.55 vs 1.52

Round 2 has thrown up some interesting predictions for me. The program says the winners will be Brisbane, Collingwood, West Coast, North Melbourne, Sydney, Fremantle, Richmond, Hawthorn. 2 of these (North Melb. and Richmond) are significantly opposed to the odds available from the betting agency. So I'm hoping to predict 2 big upsets here.

Another anomaly comes with the betting suggestion. In 3 cases (Carlton, Melbourne, Port Adelaide), I am supposed to bet on the outsider. This is highlighted by the very generous odds on offer for Melbourne to beat Collingwood at 10 to 1.

I'll finish by saying I'm not too confident with the predictions this week. My program uses recent form as a guide, and so early in the year there are not many games to judge recent form, so we can expect some improvement as the year goes on.