Round 3 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
St. Kilda Collingwood	2.38 1.72	1.49 2.63	Collingwood by 1 pt	Collingwood
North Melb. West Coast	100 1.00	1.85 1.96	West Coast by 38 pts	West Coast
Port Adel. Brisbane	2.00 2.00	1.85 1.96	Port Adel. by 1 pt	none
Sydney Richmond	1.00 100	1.10 7.10	Sydney by 28 pts	Sydney
Carlton Essendon	1.47 3.13	1.52 2.55	Carlton by 18 pts	Carlton
Melbourne Adelaide	1.59 2.70	2.60 1.50	Melbourne by 6 pts	Melbourne
W. Bulldogs Hawthorn	2.22 1.82	1.53 2.52	Hawthorn by 1 pt	Hawthorn
Fremantle Geelong	3.23 1.45	2.50 1.54	Geelong by 0 pts	Geelong

One match this week does not provide a bet, due to the available odds for each team shorter than my predictions.

Based on some feedback I have updated the layout of my table of predictions. I hope this makes things easier to understand. Here are some notes to help explain the numbers and terms I am using.

The Head-to-head tips are for the team most likely to win the match, shown as the Predicted Winner in the table. Most of the time these teams will also be favourites with the betting agencies.

Predicted Odds are found by calculating a percentage chance of winning, and converting this to decimal odds. Decimal odds show the unit amount returned on a winning bet, including the initial unit of bet placed. For example, if a team has a 50% chance of winning, the decimal odds will be 2.00. That is, for a $1 bet, a win will give you $2 back (including the $1 you used to place the bet), which is $1 profit. A loss will obviously mean you don't get your $1 bet back.

Available Odds are the decimal odds that betting agencies are offering at the time I post. Because betting agencies aim to make a profit, there is a profit margin built in to the odds in their favour. For example, in an match where both teams are equal chance of winning (ignoring a draw) the real odds would be 2.00 for each team, but the agency odds would be more like 1.95 for each team.

The Suggested Bet compares the predicted odds to the available odds and suggests placing a bet on the team that has available odds in YOUR favour, compared to what is predicted. This may result in placing bets on a team that is not necessarily expected to win most times, but on average will give you a better return in the long run.