Round 22 Results

Round 22 results:

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 110 out of 176

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Fremantle	W	$60
Geelong	W	$2
Hawthorn	W	$11
St.Kilda	L	-$30
Essendon	L	-$37
Sydney	W	$36
Port Adel.	W	$120
Melbourne	L	-$2
Total ($475 outlay)		$161 profit
Percentage Return		34% profit

A great finish to the season.

Overall for the 22 rounds of the 2010 home and away season, my result was a $45 loss. With bets totalling $9020, this calculates to a loss of less than 0.5%

Now, I actually consider this to be a successful trial for a number of reasons.
1) I implemented my method of predictions without any real analysis, so it is a great starting point for making refinements.
2) Further analysis, using the same methodology, can give improvements in returns by being more selective in betting. For example, the first few rounds a more random. Also, betting on teams with large odds (> 5.00) generally does not pay off overall.
3) The available odd from betting agencies has a built in profit margin of 8% or more. So I have already effectively beaten those odds.

I will perform some more analysis on the results for the season, and produce what I would consider a realistic return of the current version of my tipping system.

I also plan to undertake some development of the system, with automated testing to make improvements more rapidly. Hopefully version 2 will be ready for next season, and potentially be put into action.

Round 21 Results and Round 22 Predictions

Round 21 results:

Head-to-Head tips correct: 6 out of 8
Total for year: 105 out of 168

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Carlton	L	-$58
St.Kilda	W	$9
Fremantle	L	-$33
Collingwood	W	$5
Sydney	W	$13
Port Adel.	W	$100
Essendon	L	-$8
North Melb.	W	$31
Total ($451 outlay)		$58 profit
Percentage Return		13% profit

Round 22 predictions:

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Fremantle Carlton	1.00 100	1.60 2.42	Fremantle by 24 pts	Fremantle
Geelong West Coast	1.00 100	1.02 15.00	Geelong by 49 pts	Geelong
Hawthorn Collingwood	2.38 1.72	2.65 1.51	Collingwood by 14 pts	Hawthorn
Adelaide St.Kilda	4.00 1.33	2.52 1.55	St.Kilda by 32 pts	St.Kilda
W.Bulldogs Essendon	2.00 2.00	1.20 4.75	W.Bulldogs by 24 pts	Essendon
Brisbane Sydney	100 1.00	3.25 1.36	Sydney by 4 pts	Sydney
Richmond Port Adel.	100 1.00	1.70 2.20	Port Adel. by 24 pts	Port Adel.
Melbourne North Melb.	1.89 2.13	1.92 1.92	Melbourne by 1 pt	Melbourne

I need to win $206 this round to come out in front for the season overall.

Round 20 Results and Round 21 Predictions

Round 20 results:

Head-to-Head tips correct: 7 out of 8
Total for year: 99 out of 160

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Carlton	W	$32
Sydney	W	$101
W.Bulldogs	L	-$100
Port Adel.	W	$38
North Melb.	L	-$34
Total ($408 outlay)		$36 profit
Percentage Return		9% profit

Another winning round!

Round 21 predictions:

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Geelong Carlton	3.03 1.49	1.19 4.75	Carlton by 17 pts	Carlton
St.Kilda Richmond	1.00 100	1.09 7.50	St.Kilda by 49 pts	St.Kilda
Hawthorn Fremantle	1.75 2.33	1.10 7.00	Hawthorn by 3 pts	Fremantle
Collingwood Adelaide	1.00 100	1.05 10.00	Collingwood by 41 pts	Collingwood
Sydney W.Bulldogs	1.82 2.22	2.05 1.78	Sydney by 10 pts	Sydney
Port Adel. Melbourne	1.00 100	2.00 1.82	Port Adel. by 31 pts	Port Adel.
Essendon Brisbane	1.54 2.86	1.62 2.30	Essendon by 14 pts	Essendon
West Coast North Melb.	3.70 1.37	2.02 1.80	North Melb. by 7 pts	North Melb.

Round 19 Results and Round 20 Predictions

Round 19 results:

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 92 out of 152

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Carlton	W	$42
Fremantle	L	-$100
Sydney	W	$113
West Coast	L	-$23
Collingwood	W	$3
St.Kilda	W	$22
W.Bulldogs	W	$35
Total ($475 outlay)		$92 profit
Percentage Return		19% profit

My tipping form looks to be turning around now. Another nice profit this week, and edging closer to break-even for the season overall.

Round 20 predictions:

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Essendon Collingwood	8.33 1.14	7.10 1.11	Collingwood by 41 pts	none
Carlton Richmond	1.00 100	1.32 3.50	Carlton by 2 pts	Carlton
Fremantle Sydney	6.67 1.18	1.61 2.37	Sydney by 43 pts	Sydney
W.Bulldogs Geelong	1.00 100	2.40 1.60	W.Bulldogs by 38 pts	W.Bulldogs
Port Adel. West Coast	1.00 100	1.38 3.10	Port Adel. by 34 pts	Port Adel.
Brisbane Adelaide	2.08 1.92	1.92 1.90	Adelaide by 1 pt	none
Hawthorn Melbourne	1.75 2.33	1.67 2.22	Hawthorn by 1 pt	none
North Melb. St.Kilda	2.00 2.00	4.20 1.24	St.Kilda by 1 pt	North Melb.

Just 5 bets for the round.

Round 19 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Essendon Carlton	4.35 1.30	2.00 1.85	Carlton by 19 pts	Carlton
North Melb. Fremantle	100 1.00	1.86 1.98	Fremantle by 28 pts	Fremantle
Sydney Hawthorn	1.00 100	2.13 1.74	Sydney by 14 pts	Sydney
West Coast Brisbane	1.43 3.33	1.64 2.30	West Coast by 9 pts	West Coast
Geelong Collingwood	2.00 2.00	1.80 2.05	draw	Collingwood
St. Kilda Port Adel.	1.00 100	1.22 4.30	St. Kilda by 35 pts	St. Kilda
Melbourne Richmond	1.52 2.94	1.52 2.54	Melbourne by 8 pts	none
Adelaide W.Bulldogs	100 1.00	3.20 1.35	W.Bulldogs by 31 pts	W.Bulldogs

Rounds 16, 17 and 18 Results

Round 16

Head-to-Head tips correct: 4 out of 8
Total for year: 76 out of 128

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
Geelong	L	-$34
St.Kilda	L	-$100
Hawthorn	W	$27
Essendon	L	-$100
Port Adel.	L	-$18
North Melb.	W	$100
Fremantle	W	$22
Total ($571 outlay)		$122 loss
Percentage Return		21% loss

I have been away for a week, so I didn't get a chance to post the predictions for rounds 17 and 18. Since those games are over, I'll just post the results.

Round 17

Head-to-Head tips correct: 6 out of 8
Total for year: 82 out of 136

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
St.Kilda	L	-$58
Collingwood	W	$11
Geelong	W	$6
Essendon	W	$181
Carlton	W	$87
W.Bulldogs	W	$8
Melbourne	W	$30
Total ($504 outlay)		$265 profit
Percentage Return		53% profit

One of the best results for the season! This makes the balance sheet look a little better, although I am still down overall for the season. Considering the only miss was the drawn match, I was very close to a clean sweep.


Round 18

Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 87 out of 144

Betting results:

Team	Outcome	Winnings
St.Kilda	L	-$100
Collingwood	W	$19
Hawthorn	L	-$6
Geelong	W	$23
Melbourne	W	$105
Adelaide	L	-$100
W.Bulldogs	W	$16
Fremantle	W	$38
Total ($706 outlay)		$5 loss
Percentage Return		1% loss

I basically broke even for that round.

On the season so far, I'm 5% down overall. Just 4 rounds to go to get back in the black.