Head-to-Head tips correct: 5 out of 8
Total for year: 110 out of 176
| Team | Outcome | Winnings |
|---|---|---|
| Fremantle | W | $60 |
| Geelong | W | $2 |
| Hawthorn | W | $11 |
| St.Kilda | L | -$30 |
| Essendon | L | -$37 |
| Sydney | W | $36 |
| Port Adel. | W | $120 |
| Melbourne | L | -$2 |
| Total ($475 outlay) | $161 profit | |
| Percentage Return | 34% profit | |
A great finish to the season.
Overall for the 22 rounds of the 2010 home and away season, my result was a $45 loss. With bets totalling $9020, this calculates to a loss of less than 0.5%
Now, I actually consider this to be a successful trial for a number of reasons.
1) I implemented my method of predictions without any real analysis, so it is a great starting point for making refinements.
2) Further analysis, using the same methodology, can give improvements in returns by being more selective in betting. For example, the first few rounds a more random. Also, betting on teams with large odds (> 5.00) generally does not pay off overall.
3) The available odd from betting agencies has a built in profit margin of 8% or more. So I have already effectively beaten those odds.
I will perform some more analysis on the results for the season, and produce what I would consider a realistic return of the current version of my tipping system.
I also plan to undertake some development of the system, with automated testing to make improvements more rapidly. Hopefully version 2 will be ready for next season, and potentially be put into action.
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