Round 14 Predictions

Match	Predicted Odds	Available Odds	Predicted Winner	Suggested Bet
Carlton Brisbane	1.00 100	1.24 4.25	Carlton by 24 pts	Carlton
Hawthorn W.Bulldogs	100 1.00	2.30 1.62	W.Bulldogs by 18 pts	W.Bulldogs
Fremantle Port Adel.	1.14 8.33	1.12 6.35	Fremantle by 28 pts	none
Collingwood West Coast	1.00 100	1.06 9.30	Collingwood by 65 pts	Collingwood
Adelaide Essendon	1.59 2.70	1.65 2.25	Adelaide by 16 pts	Adelaide
Geelong North Melb.	1.00 100	1.16 5.30	Geelong by 30 pts	Geelong
Richmond Sydney	4.76 1.27	2.12 1.73	Sydney by 31 pts	Sydney
St. Kilda Melbourne	1.11 10.00	1.15 5.75	St. Kilda by 42 pts	St. Kilda

Since I am now showing the results of Kelly betting, here is the formula I am using to work out how much to bet:

Bet Amount = $100 x (AO/PO - 1)/(AO - 1)

where AO = Available Odds and PO = Predicted Odds.

$100 is the upper limit for any bet, which occurs when I predict a result which is 100% one way. The bet is proportionately reduced as the available odds for the team get bigger (you don't need to bet as much to get a reasonable win amount) and as the difference between my prediction and what is available (which attempts to reduce the risk).

Using the Sydney vs Richmond game as an example, the formula gives (for betting on Sydney):

Bet Amount = $100 x (1.73/1.27 - 1)/(1.73 - 1)
= $100 x 0.3622 / 0.73
= $50

And there you have it. This week looks promising since all 7 bet suggestions are being placed on the favourite.