Story so far...

For my first post, here is the story behind this blog and how it came about.
In 2003 I was between IT jobs and thought of a little project in order to learn VB.NET. I came up with the idea of using statistics from past AFL footy games in order to predict the winners in future matches. I didn't know if it would work, but I gave it a go anyway.
Over the next few years I built up the statistical database and worked out different ways of analysing the data. After a couple of trial runs in footy tipping competitions, I had very limited success - not quite what I was looking for.
I put it aside for a couple of years, and the recently began looking at it again after talking to a friend (thanks Ian) who was creating his own sports betting application. I started to take another path where it is not necessary to predict the winner every time, but to be able to come up with odds that are closer to results compared with what is offered by betting agencies. If this can be done, then in the long run I can use sports betting to come out ahead.
And so this is where I'm at. This season will be my first full trial run of how my system goes. I won't actually be placing any bets - I'm not that confident yet! However, I will be documenting my predictions, and showing what could be done this season if it was used for real.